What will be the next big Bitcoin Prize event?

For the digital currency, the summer was anything but relaxing.

First the big debate about the effects of the UK’s EU withdrawal (BREXIT) on the Bitcoin course and then the hoped-for Bitcoin boom due to the block halving in July. Not to mention the hacker attack on the Bitcoin trading platform Bitfinex. Bitcoin has had a few turbulent months and yet the digital currency was able to settle back into a stable 550-600 US dollar range.

Bitcoin has been volatile by nature over the years and experts are already arguing about what next event will revive the exchange rate. The year is progressing towards autumn and winter and the conditions are not bad for a new boom or a slide as we already know them from the year 2015.

Institutional admission to the news spy

Among the analysts, a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund was hotly debated as an investment instrument of the news spy. Many market observers have closely observed the development of potential ETFs, but so far no concrete implementation has taken place like this: Is The News Spy a Scam? Beware, Read our Review First. In recent weeks the issue has been revived with the announcement of the SolidX Bitcoin Trust and a new announcement by the Winkelvoss Bitcoin Trust.

Approval of either fund could be a major milestone for the Bitcoin community. An ETF would give authorised market participants access to Bitcoin tied shares and thus provide new liquidity.

Daniel Masters, of the Global Advisor Bitcoin Investment Fund (GABI) said that so far all commodities that have gained access to an ETF have enjoyed significant price gains:

“Since 2000, ETFs have sprung up like mushrooms for almost all commodities – whether for golf, silver, oil, gas, platinum or copper, with the introduction of an ETF the price, trading volume and public interest all rose. If an ETF is really approved here, it could have a big positive impact on the current Bitcoin price.

Technical progress

Bitcoin could experience another potential upswing through the long-awaited solution of the scaling debate. Currently the transaction blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain have a capacity of 1MB. This limit also dampens the transaction flow at peak times. In other words, too few transactions can be processed over the network, resulting in a transaction backlog.

This topic has also already been hotly debated. There was talk of a hard fork where the size of the blocks should be increased to 2MB for example (Bitcoin Classic). As an alternative the SegWit code of the Bitcoin core developers came into discussion. A pre-release was recently released here (click here to download).

Even though SegWit would be a big step forward for the Bitcoin network, the analysts doubt that it will have too much impact on the price per BTC.

Cryptocurrency Investment Fon’s manager Jacob Eliosoff, for example, said that investors had already included the April event announced in December in their price expectations and that the effect was therefore included in the current price.

“The SegWit release has been expected too long to have an effect on the price. Not to say it’s already overdue.”

Tim Enneking from EAM took a similar tone:

“I don’t think the SegWit release will have more than a marginal effect on the Bitcoin price. At least in the short term.”

Aftereffect of the Halving
Investor Vienna Lingham says the effects of block halving its so far only been insignificant. The large effect of the halving on the price, at which the Miner’s Reward was halved from 25 to 12.5 BTC, he expects in the coming 2-4 weeks.

In a detailed article, Linham concluded that unprofitable miners will soon be forced to buy Bitcoins on the exchanges themselves. This would lead to a jump in prices due to the shortage of supply.

“It’s like distributing seeds on a field, but 50% of them are blown away abruptly. The only way (technically) to compensate for this event is to double the price on the day of halving (which didn’t happen).”